2008: Your Golden Opportunity
By Dr. Fred Goldstein
A proactive investor is an individual whom
is able to assess current economic trends and subsequently take advantage
of probable outcomes. A recent example would be wealthy investors like
Warren Buffet diversifying out of US dollars and moving into foreign
currencies. 
Our strategy at Swiss America is helping proactive
investors acquire quality tangible gold coins while the gold price is in a
major uptrend.
While owning gold in the form of commodity options, ETFs, and mining
shares may be beneficial, taking possession of gold coins is unique. The
benefits of physical ownership include intergenerational wealth transfer,
personal control, privacy and non-exchange (Wall Street and Comex)
dependency. For some, taking physical ownership is awkward. I will make the
case that the benefits of owning certain gold coins will outweigh the minor
difficulties of storage.
Many economists are predicting a recession in 2008 but this does not
preclude good investment opportunities for astute investors. The
probability is high that the upward trend in commodities will continue as
the US dollar weakens.
Adding to this is the growing demand for oil and base metals from
Asia’s largest growing economies in China and India. As these two
countries, especially China, continue to increase their exports to the
West, they accumulate large amounts of US dollars. As they move these
dollars into commodities this exacerbates the price action of gold and the
US dollar.
With total world gold mine production around 2,500 tons and total world
gold consumption at 4,000 tons, gold should continue to rise and catch up
to other commodities, such as oil and platinum. In nominal terms, oil has
more than doubled from the 1979 high and platinum is 50% above its 1980
high. Gold has just broken its 1980 high of $850/oz. Many analysts contend
that $100/barrel oil and $1,550/oz platinum should correspond to $1,500/oz
gold.
Classic $20 U.S. gold coins
undervalued!
If you have not yet taken action in acquiring a position in gold, you
now have a golden opportunity to buy high quality U.S. gold coins at a
historically low collectible (or extrinsic) premium, relative to gold's
melt (or intrinsic) value.
Although the gold price moved up over 30% in 2007 and is presently at
all time highs (relative to Jan 1980), numismatic or generic “Double
Eagles” are below their 2006 highs, and well below their all time
highs in 1988-89. Following gold correction in May/June 2006, many Double
Eagles fell over 30%. Due to the public’s lackluster interest in gold
coins as well as some negative sentiment expressed in the media, Double
Eagle prices have been slow to recover.
We have seen the beginnings of a turnaround since August 2007 as dealer
inventories are being pared down and prices are beginning to rise. Although
some Double Eagle numismatic coins have more than tripled since 2001, we
believe prices are too low relative to gold bullion.
Richard Maybury writes in his Sept 2007 Early Warning Report, p.8,
“After gold punches above $850 and stays there, numismatics will
catch up with and eventually far surpass what the precious metals and most
other non-dollar assets have done so far. Numismatics are probably the
least expensive non-dollar asset out there at this time-the most extreme
laggards- and, therefore the best bargains, the ones with the most
potential”.
What he fails to mention is the benchmark the US Government established
in the 2001 Patriot Act. Numismatic coins with a 15% collectible value are
now recognized as a “non-covered” product; while bullion coins
are a covered product. Based on this benchmark, I believe it is fair to
conclude that high quality Double Eagles are a more private way to own gold
than bullion coins.
At Swiss America we often refer to the phrase “the ratio”.
This is the number of ounces of gold it takes to buy a high quality $20
Double Eagle. Today the ratio is under 3:1 to acquire an MS-65 $20 Double
Eagle; the lowest it has been since we opened our doors for business in May
1982. (Note: the ratio topped 13:1 in the summer of 1988).
It is our belief that as the gold price continues to rise the public
will get more involved and once again Double Eagle premiums and prices will
skyrocket. With premiums at or near record lows, we believe the downside
risk is limited while the upside potential is enormous.
If you have not yet got involved in the gold bull market and feel you
have missed the boat, think again. Over the next several years, we could
see a gold coin buying panic such as the world has never seen before.