Many people are wondering why gold is dropping. The question is more of a
short term issue than the reality of our long term outlook. Gold was
trading at $690.00 in October of 2007, then surged to over $1040.00. This
market is like every other bull market two steps forward, one back. Each
and every leg up has been more and more dramatic and we expect much the
same in years to come.
June bottoms?
Examine the trends in
gold from 2001 to date and you will see similar patterns every year, the
low points have been in May-July then the surge from Summer - February. Why
is this? Supply and demand is the answer, gold is bought heavily by
jewelers for the holidays and for spring wedding dates then demand subsides
from this area of the market for a few months. Supplies are very low and
getting lower but demand is increasing as the dollar sinks because gold
remains the ultimate inflation hedge.
John
Williams' recent newsletter “Shadow Government
Statistics,” www.shadowstats.com describes what
may very well be coming .... .Here are some brief paragraphs from this
25-page report.
“With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat
(not backed by gold) dollars will come the eventual complete collapse of
the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper
assets.”
" …a law professor at Harvard and The
University of California, Berkeley, who experienced the Weimar Republic
hyperinflation, said, 'It was horrible. Horrible! Like lightning it struck.
No one was prepared. You cannot imagine the rapidity with which the whole
thing happened. The shelves in the grocery stores were empty. You could buy
nothing with your paper money."'
“…the still-unfolding banking solvency crisis
has confirmed the Fed’s and the U.S. government’s willingness
to spend whatever money they have to create in order to keep the financial
system from imploding.”
" The circumstance envisioned ahead is not one of
double- or triple- digit annual inflation, but more along the lines of
seven- to 10-digit inflation seen in other circumstances during the last
century."
“The historical culprit generally has been the use of
fiat currencies - currencies with no asset backing such as gold - and the
resulting massive printing of currency that the issuing authority needed to
support its system, when it did not have the ability, otherwise, to raise
enough money forits perceived needs, through taxes or other
means.”
“The United States is no exception, already having
obligated itself to liabilities well beyond its ability ever to pay
off.”
“Hyperinflation: Extreme
inflation, minimally in excess of four-digit annual percent change, where
the involved currency becomes worthless. A fairly crude definition of
hyperinflation is a circumstance, where, due to extremely rapid price
increases, the largest pre-hyperinflation bank note ($100) becomes worth
more as functional toilet paper than as currency.”
"The current economic contraction is about halfway
towards being classified as a 'depression.'"
"Official CPI could be running in double-digits by
year-end 2008."
“The U.S. economy has been in a recession since
late-2006, entering the second down-leg of a multiple-dip economic
contraction, where the first down-leg was the recession of 2001 that really
began back in late-1999. Annual CPI inflation currently is running around
11.6%, again, facing further upside pressures.”
“The evolving depression quickly will move to
great-depression status, when the hyperinflation hits. It will be extremely
disruptive to the conduct of normal commerce.”
“Ongoing M3 currently shows a record annual growth
rate of 17.3%.”
"In the near future, dollar selling should build
towards an extreme, with heavy foreign investment in the dollar fleeing the
U.S. currency for safety elsewhere. With the domestic financial markets and
U.S. Treasuries so heavily dependent on foreign capital for liquidity, the
Federal Reserve - now touted as the formal financial market stabilizer -
will be forced increasingly to monetize federal debt. That process will
build over time, given the federal government’s effective
bankruptcy."
“Again, the current circumstance will evolve into a
hyperinflationary depression, then a great depression. Although such is not
likely much before 2010, or after 2018, the financial end game for the
current markets will tend to come sooner rather than later and will break
with surprising speed when it hits.”
“2008 will favor an incumbent party loss, i.e. a
victory for the Democrats.”
“What promises hyperinflation this time is the lack
of monetary discipline formerly imposed on the system by the gold standard,
and a Fed dedicated to preventing a collapse in the money supply and the
implosion of the still, extremely over-leveraged domestic financial
system.”
“The limits to the unlimited abuse of the debt
standard are particularly evident in the GAAP-based financial
statements of the U.S. government, which show the actual federal deficit at
$4.0-plus trillion for 2007 alone, with total federal obligations standing
at $62.6 trillion. With no ability to honor these obligations, the
government effectively is bankrupt.”
"Although the U.S, government faces ultimate
insolvency, it has the same way out taken by most countries faced with
bankruptcy. It can print whatever money it needs to create, in order to
meet its obligations. The effect of such action is a runaway inflation - a
hyperinflation - with a resulting, full debasement of the U.S. dollar, the
world’s reserve currency.”
“Oil prices are near historic highs, the dollar is
near historic lows, and money growth is at an all-time high. The near-term
outlook for all three is for new record levels and for extremely strong
upside pressure on U.S. inflation. … gold prices should
continue setting new historic highs.”
“The difference is in accounting … for
unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities.”
“Put into perspective, if the government were to
raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate
profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting
on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it
stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security)
other than Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still
would show an annual deficit.”
“U.S. federal obligations are so huge versus the
national GDP that the country’s finances look more like those of a
banana republic than the world’s premiere financial power and home to
the world’s primary reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.”
“The effect of this structural change has been that
most consumers have been unable to sustain adequate income growth beyond
the rate of inflation, unable to maintain their standard of living. The
only way personal consumption can grow in such a circumstance is for the
consumer to take on new debt or liquidate savings. Both those factors are
short-lived and have reached untenable extremes.”
“From the Fed’s standpoint, it can neither
stimulate the economy nor contain inflation. Lowering rates has done little
to stimulate the structurally-impaired economy, and raising rates may
become necessary in defense of the dollar.”
“By the time hyperinflation kicks in, the economy
already should be in depression, and the hyperinflation quickly should pull
the economy into a great depression. Uncontained inflation is likely to
bring normal commercial activity to a halt.”
Hyperinflationary Great Depression
“In the United States, the printing presses have not
been revved up heavily yet, but the commitments are in place, as seen in
the annual GAAP-based deficit running on average more than $4.0 trillion
per year. That amount is far beyond the ability of the government to tax or
the political willingness of the government to cut entitlement spending.
While the inevitable inflationary collapse, based solely on these funding
needs, could be pushed well into the next decade, actions already taken
likely have set the stage for a much earlier crisis.”
“It is this environment that leaves the U.S. dollar
open to potentially such a rapid and massive decline, and dumping of U.S.
Treasuries, that the Federal Reserve would be forced to monetize
significant sums of Treasury debt, triggering the early phases of a
monetary inflation. In this environment annual multi-trillion-dollar
deficits rapidly would feed into a vicious, self-feeding cycle of currency
debasement and hyperinflation.”
“Given the extremely rapid debasement of the larger
denomination notes, with limited physical cash in the system, existing
currency would disappear quickly as a hyperinflation broke. From a
practical standpoint, however, currency would disappear, at least for a
period of time in the early period of a hyperinflation.”
The fact is he is talking about realities that may come to pass as our
government prints money to bail out our failing financial institutions. I
look at gold more as an Insurance policy on wealth and as a long term hedge
against a currency that drops decade in and decade out. If we do
enter double digit inflation or a hyper-inflationary period
the question you need to ask yourself is this, how will in fare? How will I
keep up with these rapidly increasing prices? The answer is Gold. Can you
afford not to get some in your portfolio?
JMC