2008: year of surprises
Wall St. falls despite upbeat housing ...
record high oil creates inflation worry
By David Bradshaw ~ links ~ wisdom
Editor, Real
Money Perspectives ~ Daily email
May 16, 2008 ~ *breaking* ~ features ~ (Podcast)
* Friday gold prices rose near $900/oz. on a weaker dollar and
record high oil prices. Gold last traded in NY up $18.10 to
$899.10/oz., silver rose $.29 to $16.94/oz.
* The price of oil rocketed to a record high point of 127.43
dollars a barrel on Friday, as President George Bush prepared to urge
Saudi Arabia to pump more crude, analysts said.
* "U.S. stocks fell on Friday fell as crude oil
prices broke to another record high and consumer confidence slumped,
darkening earlier cheer triggered by an unanticipated rise in April
home starts," reports MW.
"You're seeing some new buying come back into gold.
The dollar has stopped its immediate-term rally. Gold is still $200 too
cheap, given where oil is," said Frank McGhee, head metals trader at
Integrated Brokerage in Chicago to Bloomberg
"Rampant inflation is starting to damage business confidence.
"The latest data point to a potential downturn in Brazil, China,
and India," said the OECD, the club of rich nations," reports London Telegraph.
"The Federal Reserve does not
have the tools to deal with the U.S. housing crisis and rapidly rising
consumer prices, leaving it to lawmakers to avert a severe recession,
said Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian," reports Reuters.
"Oil climbed above
$126 a barrel Thursday, then pulled back, after the U.S. government
issued a mixed report on the country's petroleum reserves. Crude oil prices
have risen almost 30% this year on steadily rising demand in emerging
economies, sluggish growth in new supply and unrest in some major producing
nations," reports CNN.
"The average U.S. gasoline price
rose about 2 cents to $3.78 a gallon in the last day, according to the
Daily Fuel Gauge Report from the Automobile Association of America. The
cost of gasoline has risen 22% from its year-ago price of $3.10 a
gallon," reports MW.
Gas prices are actually cheaper today than they were forty years
ago in relation to silver prices. A gallon of gas cost three 90% silver
dimes back in 1964, today it costs just two 90% silver dimes, which equates
to about $3.40 a gallon with silver prices near $17/oz.
"Goldman Sachs predicts that oil
prices could rise to $150 to $200 within two years," reports AP.
"If government wants to bring the price of fuel down
they should fast track legislation to open up our domestic sources of
oil such as ANWR, the Great Basin, the Outer Continental Shelf, and the
deep waters of the gulf," Swiss America CEO Craig R. Smith told WND.
"By owning gold instead of US dollars, you can today purchase
basically the same amount of crude oil as at any other time since
1945," reports James
Turk.
"Today it takes about 10 U.S. dollars to pay for a gallon of
gas in Europe. Gas is not only in a different currency that is doing
much better than our dollar, it is also sold by the liter," reports Londoner.
"Food inflation could double this year, lifted by the
rising costs of fuel, corn and soybeans, some analysts predict. Food
inflation hit 4 percent last year, up from 2.4 percent in 2006,"
reports AP.
"Former Fed
Chairman Paul Volcker warned Wednesday the U.S. could face a 1970s-style
period of skyrocketing inflation if investors lose confidence in the
buying power of the U.S. dollar," reports CNBC.
"Inflation pressures eased a bit in April despite the biggest jump in
food prices in 18 years. The Labor Department reported Wednesday that
consumer prices edged up 0.2 percent last month, compared to a 0.3 percent
rise in March," reports AP.
"We
who eat and drive suspect government stats are rotten at the core.
Worse yet, the real world rate of inflation is likely TWICE as high as
reported," said Swiss America CEO Craig R.
Smith.
"Inflationary pressure is building globally, and consumers'
expectations of future price rises are growing in a way reminiscent of the
1970s, pushed by rising commodity and energy prices and at least partly
underwritten by U.S. interest rates adjusted to rescue a country
experiencing a popping debt bubble," reports Reuters
.
"Gold is a
'green' metal for the 21st century. The chemical properties of gold
are important for the
future...these include catalysts for pollution control and
energy generation, along with use of gold
compounds and nanotechnology for
medical diagnostics and treatment," reports Mineweb.
"Turmoil in financial markets has eased somewhat, but the
situation is still "far from normal," Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday," reports AP.
"Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
lunched on March 11 with a Who's Who of Wall Street leaders, including
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Jamie Dimon, three days before the central bank
rescued Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy," reports Bloomberg.
"U.S. consumers are juggling plastic to put off their day of
reckoning. The Fed survey said credit card debt had jumped 6.7% in the
first quarter to $957bn. "My guess is that many Americans continue to
run up massive credit card debt because they have little intention of
paying it off," said Peter Schiff at Euro Pacific Capital to London Telegraph.
"The dollar weakened further against the euro
Monday as markets waited for statements from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
and economic data expected Tuesday," reports AP.
"Only a month ago the dollar slumped to an
all-time low against the euro. Could ‘the rope slip’ and
the world's pivotal currency still go into freefall? A plummeting US
currency would cause chaos globally, as central banks sought to protect the
value of their reserves,” reports London Telegraph.
"The dollar is in a major bear market, and is losing
purchasing power day after day because of debasement and inflation.
Continue to avoid it. Hold gold and/or silver instead, which remain in
clear uptrends," reports James Turk at Goldmoney.
"The great strength of gold throughout history
has not been that you make money by holding it, but rather you do not
lose. That ought to remain its best credential," says Timothy
Green,
International gold expert.
"We've seen
some positive signs from the ETFs, this is helping gold. Our view as a
bank is that economic conditions are likely to deteriorate. Some money will
come out of equities and go back into gold," said Dan Smith, a metals
analyst at Standard Chartered to Bloomberg.
"Gold is in a
'win-win' situation. If the Fed is successful at turning the U.S.
economy and credit crisis around, it will only be because it flooded the
system with hundreds of billions of paper dollars. If not, the plunging
dollar would cause investors to flock to gold sending prices above $2,270
an ounce," reports Money&Markets.
"The House passed
legislation recently to allow for the minting of pennies made primarily of
steel but coated with a copper-colored dye so they appear similar. It
also would require the production of 5-cent coins made primarily of steel,
with a coating of nickel," reports CQpolitics.
"Israel now believes Iran will master centrifuge technology
and be able to begin enriching uranium on a military scale this year.
The nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea threaten to set in motion a
domino effect that will be difficult to contain," reports The Jerusalem Post.
"Iran's standoff with the West over its nuclear program added
geopolitical concerns and fundamental tightness that sent crude oil
prices to new highs," reports Reut
ers.
"The price of aluminum, gold, copper and platinum will keep
climbing as the lights go out in the world's biggest mines following
Chile's worst drought in five decades and power rationing from South Africa
to China," reports Bloomberg.
"Gold’s downturn and the
corresponding easing of worries about the financial system are
temporary. Events always trump psychology at some point. First we will
see investors return to gold – and then we’ll see newcomers
fleeing toward it," reports DailyReckoning
.
"JPMorgan Chase & Co does not expect the U.S. financial
crisis to end soon and will remain very cautious... we are not done
with the crisis for a long time," reports Reuters
a>.
"The twilight of irredeemable debt is upon us. The sign is
that banks are reluctant to take the promissory notes of one another. The
way out is to open the U.S. Mint to gold and silver," reports ATimes
.
"For the fourth month in a row, the economy lost jobs, the
Labor Department reported Friday. But in April the losses totaled
20,000, an improvement from the 81,000 reductions in payrolls logged in
March," reports AP.
"Overall I think that the U.S. continues to follow policies
that will make the dollar weaken against other major currencies... I
feel no need to hedge purchases of multinational companies that earn
profits in other currencies, " said billionaire Warren Buffett to CNN.
"Gulf states are considering dropping their pegs to the dollar
after the U.S. currency's decline stoked inflation across the region,
Kuwaiti Finance Minister Mustafa al-Shimali said to Bloomberg.
Gold prices gave back 4.5% in April, slipping from $915/oz.
to $876/oz. while silver retreated 6%, falling from $17.88/oz. to
$16.84/oz.
John Reade at UBS noted substantial selling from ETFs has driven
the gold downturn. The analyst has cut his one-month forecast to
$850/oz from $900/oz," reports Platts.
"This pullback in gold will produce the same result as the
previous five major corrections since 2001; a great buying opportunity.
If you haven't participated in the greatest gold bull ever, it is not too
late," said Swiss America CEO Craig R. Smith.
"Gold will keep its luster amid uncertainty," says South
African precious metals specialist Markus Bachmann."The
fundamental laws of supply and demand as well as gold's natural role as an
inflation hedge are major factors," reports Citywire.
"The Federal Reserve cut Fed Fund rates by .25% to 2% as the
downside market risks outweighed their inflation concerns. The Fed
appears to be concerned about housing and further sub-prime problems so I
think they will keep rates low until those markets improve," said Mr.
Smith.
"The Fed opened up the old playbook and cut rates aggressively
when subprime loans blew up. This cemented higher inflation into place,
crushed the dollar, pushed commodity prices up sharply. The answer is for
the Fed to lift rates somewhere north of 5%. Tax-rate reductions and
interest-rate hikes cured the world of its ills in the early 1980s. They
can do so again," reports WSJ.
Last Wednesday's .25% rate cut takes real interest rates down to
minus 1.8%, the worst rate of return for dollar savers since June 2004.
"The bruised economy limped through the first quarter of this
year at only 0.6 percent as housing and credit problems forced people
and businesses alike to hunker down," reports AP.
Conflict Securities Advisory Group and Overlap Inc.
officially launched terrorfreecalculator.com on
Wednesday, a new website dedicated to equipping investors to determine
whether their mutual funds invest in companies that do business in
countries that sponsor terror, reports WND.
* "The surprise since 9/11 is that more money has not flowed
into terror-free investing considering that 'socially responsible' and
'green' funds have prospered in recent years... it is a nonviolent way for
Americans to confront terrorism and maybe even profit from the fight,"
reports TIME.
“Swiss America is a proud sponsor of terrorfreecalculator.com
which is committed to propelling this vital message out to millions of
concerned investors,” said Swiss America CEO Craig R.
Smith.
"The Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined sharply
in March, fell to a 5-year low in April. The Index now stands at 62.3
(1985=100), down from 65.9 in March. The Consumer Confidence Survey is
based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households," reports CBC
.
US households will start receiving more than $110 billion in
emergency tax rebates, approved by Congress in an attempt to revive
consumer spending.
Swiss America CEO Craig Smith told FOX's Neil Cavuto, "This is
election year feel-good legislation. A recent survey stated only 17% of
the public is planning to spend their rebate, while 29% plan to save it and
54% plan to pay down debt." W
atch it
High prices for food and fuel, weak income growth and falling home
values pulled down consumer sentiment in April, according to a
government report released Friday.
"Demand for precious metals in self-directed U.S. Individual
Retirement Accounts is growing for many of the reasons other investors
have been drawn to the metal - a hedge against inflation, dollar weakness
and credit-market worries," reports DowJones.
"Sales of new homes plunged in March to the lowest level in 16
1/2 years as housing slumped at the start of the spring sales season.
The median price of a new home in March, fell by 8.5%, the largest amount
in nearly four decades," reports AP.
$200 oil, $2,000 gold ahead
"Surging crude prices, which could surpass $200 a barrel in
four years on tight supplies, could push gasoline prices to as high as $7 a
gallon, CIBC World Markets analysts said Thursday," reports MW.
"Crude-oil prices rose to a new high of $119.86 a barrel
this week as lingering worries over oil-supply disruptions and the
dollar's new low against the euro provided support for prices,"
reports MW.
Recently many analysts have jumped onto the $1,000/oz. plus gold
bandwagon -- most of whom were not considered "gold bugs" in
the past, like Citibank and JP Morgan & Co. We've collected over fifty
prominent analysts, authors and gold expert statements about why their
combined gold price expectation is $2,200/oz.
"The price of gold is up 35% in the past 12 months. The
question is whether they will keep rising. Odds are, if inflation moves
higher, they will too. Is it too late to get in? "I think we're in a
long-term bull market for commodities," says Matthew Tuttle, a
financial planner in Stamford, Conn to WSJ.
"Don’t sell your investments in commodities yet.
Billionaire George Soros says the boom in commodities is still in a 'growth
phase.' In fact, prices for commodities like oil, wheat and gold
continue to rise to new records, defying the paradigm that commodity prices
should fall as the U.S. economy slows," reports
MoneyNews.
* "Scholars speculate that the Wizard of Oz was at once a
children’s fantasy and a timely political allegory, and that the
silver slippers, yellow brick road, and Emerald City were intended as
symbols for the gold and silver standards and paper money," reports Columbia. [Ed. Note:
Watch: Hugo Salinas
Price explain "Dorothy's Silver Slippers" from recent GATA
conference].