It may be the mother of all doom
and gloom gas price predictions: $12 for a gallon of gas is
“inevitable.”
Robert Hirsch, Management
Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, gave a dire warning about the
potential future of gas prices on CNBC’s
May 20 “Squawk Box”. He told host
Becky Quick there was no single thing that would solve the problem, due to
the enormity of the problem.
“[T]he prices that
we’re paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be ‘the
good old days,’ because others who watch this very closely forecast
that we’re going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon,” Hirsch
said. “And then, after that, when oil – world oil
production goes into decline, we’re going to talk about rationing. In
other words, not only are we going to be paying high prices and have
considerable economic problems, but in addition to that, we’re not
going to be able to get the fuel when we want it.”
Hirsch told the Business &
Media Institute the $12-$15 a gallon wasn’t his prediction, but that
he was citing Charles T. Maxwell, described as the “Dean of Oil Analysts” and
the senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. Still, Hirsch
admitted the high price was inevitable in his view.
“I don’t attempt to
predict oil prices because it’s been impossible in the past,”
Hirsch said in an e-mail. “We’re into a new era now, and over
the next roughly five years the trend will be up
significantly. However, there may be dips and bumps that no one can
forecast; I wouldn’t be at all surprised. To me the multi-year
upswing is inevitable.”
Maxwell’s original
$12-15-a-gallon prediction came in a February 5 interview with
Energytechstocks.com, a Web site run by two
former Wall Street Journal staffers.
“[Maxwell] expects an
oil-induced financial crisis to start somewhere in the 2010 to 2015
timeframe,” Energytechstocks.com reported.
“He said that, unlike the recession the appears to be in today, ‘This will not be six
months of hell and then we come out of it.’ Rather, Maxwell expects
this financial crisis to last at least 10 or 12 years, as the world goes
through a prolonged period of price-induced rationing (eg, oil up to $300 a
barrel and U.S. pump prices up to $15 a
gallon).”
According to associate of Maxwell
at Weeden & Co., Maxwell is out of the country and currently
unavailable for comment.
Maxwell’s biography on the
Weeden & Co. Web site said he “has been ranked by the financial institutions as the No. 1 oil analyst for
the years 1972, 1974, 1977 and 1981-1986,” according to polls taken
by Institutional Investor magazine.
“In addition, for the last
17 years he has been an active member of an Oxford-based organization
comprised of OPEC and other industry executives from 30 countries who meet
twice a year to discuss trends within the energy
industry.”
Although Maxwell’s
prediction is for the long-term, not everyone supports high-end
predictions, even in the short-term. CNBC contributor and the vice
president of risk management for MF Global (NYSE:MF) John Kilduff said on
“The
Call” May 7that he expected gas prices
to drop following the Chinese Olympics, as China’s economic boom
slows down.