The $64 Billion, Trillion Question
By Dr. Fred
Goldstein
Sept. 24, 2008
Dramatic financial events
have dominated the news for the last several weeks. Today investors are
very concerned about the safety and value of their financial assets while
Wall Street ponders the fate of its most established brokerage and
insurance companies. We love the attention to money matters but do not
relish the possibility of market meltdowns.
After the recent 1,000-point drop in the Dow, an emergency
behind-closed-doors meeting was held with members of Congress, the
Treasury, the Fed and the President. Subsequently it was announced that
legislation would probably be enacted to transfer the liabilities of bad
mortgage instruments from banks and brokerage companies to the government.
Senator Dodd implied he was led to believe the situation was dire and
immediate action was necessary.
It appears we have come full circle since 1980 when we experienced
another financial crisis. At the time inflation was double digits and
foreigners were losing confidence in the US dollar. Fed chairman Paul
Volcker boldly began raising interest rates up to 20% to squelch inflation
and restore confidence. Today investors are once again looking to the
government to restore confidence in the financial markets.
The proposed government bailout appears to be a temporary fix and adds
to a long-term debt problem. Over the last 25 years we have witnessed the
greatest accumulation of debt in world history. We were dismayed when
Reagan’s commission scoffed at the return to a gold standard. Those
of us involved in the rare coin and precious metals market have warned
about excessive debt leading to severe inflation, higher costs of living,
and a weaker US dollar. Our antagonists have argued that excessive debt
will lead to deflation and hence a stronger dollar.
With the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, AIG, Bear Stearns and
the recent Resolution Bailout; the $64 Trillion Dollar question of
inflation or deflation has finally been answered! Peter Schiff, President
of Euro Pacific Capital, wrote on
9/19/08, “While it is dizzying to predict how this plan will be
implemented, it is fairly simple to foresee the macroeconomic consequences.
The U.S. dollar will be shattered beyond repair. The government simply has
no means to make good on the trillions of new liabilities…So while
the move ensures that depositors will not lose money, is does insure that
the money itself will lose value.”
The government’s abandonment of the gold standard and
establishment of the Federal Reserve have proven to be disastrous. The
result has been unsound monetary policies with trillions in unfunded
liabilities, and an overdependence on foreign creditors. Today we are
expected to believe the government’s “Resolution Bailout”
will cure Wall Street’s ills and restore confidence in the economy. I
believe the plan will shift the liabilities to the saver and taxpayer while
exemplifying moral hazard.
LeMetropoleCafé.com
reported on 9/19/08, “The President’s new bailout plan to be a
Patriot Act for the economy. Both pieces of legislation are being rushed
through Congress as emergency actions with little time for scrutiny. Both
acts rewrite the rules of how the country operates. Just as the Patriot Act
compromised individual political freedom, the bailout compromises economic
freedom. Never again will the market determine the big winners and losers;
henceforth the government will, in its infinite wisdom decide which firms
will live or die. As a political matter, the new structure is unlikely to
function well. As Milton Friedman said, ‘If you put the Federal
Government in charge of the Sahara Desert in five years there’d be a
shortage of sand.’”
The obvious question one should ask is; where will the hundreds of
billions or trillions come from for this bailout? History teaches us when
federal government needs immediate cash and has over borrowed; it turns to
the printing press. The Federal Reserve buys US bonds and infuses cash into
the system. This is called monetization of debt and is the root cause of
inflation.
Jim Sinclair of JSMineset.com wrote on 9/19/08,
“Today's reported potential infinite bailout of all and any portends,
if adopted, is the largest increase in dollars outstanding since the
Jurassic Age... It closely models actions undertaken regarding the
production of currency liquidity seen in the Weimar Republic."
So today we embark on a new stage in American financial history. It
appears the government’s “Resolution Bailout” will
temporarily calm the markets but mortgage our financial future. This
program will weaken the dollar and insure higher costs of real assets such
as housing and automobiles. Higher costs of living will be the burden for
our children and grandchildren, as well as those looking toward retirement
or those on a fixed income.
Now that the $64 trillion question has been answered in terms of
inflation; there is no doubt as to what action a proactive investor must
take. Bill Murphy, GATA chairman and
proprietor of LeMetropolecafe.com, on 9/19/08, “Once the dust
settles, most everyone with half a brain is going to go out and buy gold
and silver.. The small gold and silver markets will not be able to handle
the demand without sending their prices sharply higher”.
Citigroup metals analysts, John Hill and Graham Wark wrote on 9/19/08,
“We have been surprised that gold has been so heretofore quiet, and
have expected a much strong and more immediate response to the government
takeover of GSE [Government Sponsored Enterprises]/mortgage insurance
entities, and broker-deal bankruptcies…It is notable that hard-core
goldbugs have been proven correct in the decade-long contention that an
overwhelmingly vast and complex pool of nested financial derivates would
ultimately result in cascading defaults and ruin for major portions of the
banking system. Frankly, we're surprised that gold is not already at $2,000
per ounce.”