The Great Deflation of 2009?
One of nine key financial
mega-shifts ahead
By Craig R. Smith
November 2009
U.S. consumer prices plunged by
the steepest amount since records were tabulated in 1947, the Labor
Department reported Wednesday. Prices fell 1% in October, with energy
prices plunging 8.6%, yet food prices rose 0.3%.
The U.S. dollar and stocks fell on the first whiff of
major consumer deflation, while gold prices steadied. Should we expect more
deflation in 2009?
Deflation can be just as devastating to an economy as inflation. Today
we have much lower oil and gas prices over the last year and that is
deflationary, but also have a home that is worth a fraction of its value a
year or two ago as well. Many of the products and services we use are still
up this year, such as food, medical care and college tuition.
So, while deflation is positive if you are looking to buy a home, fill
your gas tank or buy stocks, it is very debilitating to a country like ours
which depends so heavily on debt and ongoing housing and asset inflation as
our primary means of saving for the future.
Our growth over the last decade or two has come as a direct result of
consumption, which relied heavily on borrowing against real estate or other
inflated assets. I believe the deflationary loop we are presently in will
end by the middle or end of 2009 as the government pours liquidity into the
economy.
As bad as it seems today, with all the rhetoric about being the worst
since the Great Depression, keep in mind that 6.5% unemployment today is
not 25% as it was in 1929-1933. We likely will have a negative 3% GDP
starting in 2008 fourth quarter which may continue for 2 more quarters, but
that’s not 45% negative growth we had in 1929-1933.
The solution to both inflation and deflation is to own more gold, which
maintains its buying power no matter what. During deflation if the dollar
continues to strengthen its value should drop to reflect a falling cost of
living. When inflation heats back up the dollar will fall and gold prices
will rise to reflect a rising cost of living. Gold is the perfect wealth
insurance against both inflation and deflation.
I expect in 2009 we will see the rise of both oil and gold prices,
despite deflationary pressures. I think oil prices will rise because we
will take our eye off the ball now that gas prices are near $2 a gallon
instead of $4.50 a gallon. Offshore drilling could easily move to the back
burner. We have a history of seeing a shock, then complacency, shock, etc.
So I expect we will again revisit $100 a barrel oil in 2009.
I am confident we will see $1,000 an ounce gold in 2009 and
perhaps far beyond that depending on international tensions. If we have a
challenge to Obama’s administration by foreign powers, such as we
have been warned to expect, you could see gold prices rocket based on its
unique safe haven status.
Regarding which type of gold I recommend, I’ve always
recommended early American $20 gold pieces as
the best way to hold physical gold. The reason is that although they
don’t always rise as fast and furiously as bullion on the way up the
usually catch up and do not come down as fast as bullion after the
fireworks are over.
Call GoldIRAS or request information be sent online for a FREE copy of 9
Economic Realities of '09
JMC