Golden Compass Still Pointing North
By David Bradshaw
Editor, RMP
Dec. 16, 2008
Back in 2001 we
announced the beginning of a new bull market in U.S. gold coins based on
market trends, diversification principles and common sense. Every year
since the momentum has been building, with gold prices piercing $1,000 an
ounce in 2008. The big question now: Is gold's 8-year uptrend your friend
yet?
Before year 2000 gold was considered 20%
below stupid ... and then the stock market
peaked and fell into a grinding secular bear market cycle which may
last another decade.
Until 2006 real estate was considered
"a sure bet", yet USA Today experts say
we may need to wait another decade to see those same lofty home prices
again.
In 2008 investors are dashing into Treasury
bills and bonds a safe haven, yet by 2009 they
will likely discover the high price of safety via negative returns.
As investors pound the pavement looking for financial safety with some
possibility of growth in 2009 the prospects are few. A global recession,
off-the-chart corporate scandals and failed government bailouts are just a
few of the factors fueling the next stage of the gold rush. All major
investment roads are blocked, except for gold. Here's why...
1.
DOLLARS/TREASURIES/BONDS
The dollar hit a two-month low against
the euro and a basket of currencies today, as
investors fretted over the fate of ailing U.S. automakers and anticipated a
Fed interest rate cut this week near .5%.
The biggest problem with buying T-Bills or
T-Bonds is that its shortsighted. Yes, you get
safety, but you're also locking in a 3- to 10-year losing
"investment" yield. Last week the
yield on the 10-year Treasury Bonds slipped to 2.70% -- which
is unlikely even cover the rising cost of living over the
coming decade.
Economists agree that the long-term impact
of increasing money supply to cover trillions
of new government debt will create inflation. Some say hyper-inflation.
Rising inflation sends the value of U.S. Treasuries
down, but gold prices go up.
"The dollar WILL NOT be king in a
protracted recession as there is nothing to back it up.
The Treasury's willingness to print money in order to satisfy the
need created by huge government spending
programs virtually assures a lower dollar," says Swiss America CEO
Craig R. Smith.
2. STOCKS/MUTUAL
FUNDS
The Dow slid back into a bear market
in October 2008, and is now down over 40% since
its 2007 peak of 14,000, in the wake of the worst credit crunch since the
Great Depression. Many pundits have called a
November 2008 bottom, but giant risks remain.
Wall St. Ponzi schemes: U.S. regulators
never inspected Bernard Madoff’s investment
advisory business, alleged to be a Ponzi scheme that cost investors $50
billion. “The government will help but
they’re not going to protect you from losing all of
your money,” former SEC commissioner Laura Unger told CNBC
today.
More taxpayer bailouts: Detroit is waiting to see how much financial
help the White House will donate to desperately avoid a "disorderly
bankruptcy" in the auto industry. Obama has a trillion dollar plan
ready to roll out.
Stock market and mutual fund investors today
face a deadly economic cocktail; slowing
growth, record high debt and a global credit crunch. Back in July 2007
Swiss America warned investors that Dow 14,000
is not a milestone, but rather a mirage concocted of
smoke and mirrors.
3. HOUSING/REAL
ESTATE
"The Great Depression of the
1930s was preceded by a real estate bubble, also fueled
by loose lending standards and shrinking down payment requirements.
Those real estate problems — and
solutions — echo today's," reports USAToday.
Back on June 12, 2005, Time Magazine chose
this headline for its cover: "Home $weet
Home: Why We're Going Gaga Over Real Estate." We did not share the
euphoria, as we believed that the housing
bubble was about to peak, and so it did in 2006.
Since then prices have fallen as much as 50%
in peak bubble markets Florida, California and
Arizona. Perhaps this time we will learn the lesson that a home is not to
be viewed as an endless piggy bank or short-term
ATM, but rather a long-term investment made by
those who have saved up a down payment with monthly payments they can
afford without gimmicky financing.
In 2009 U.S. government will likely take
aggressive steps to help homeowners by expanding
programs that restructure troubled mortgages to prevent a flood of
foreclosed homes from coming on the market and
driving prices down even further. Sadly this will likely further
distort the market and prolong the downturn.
CONCLUSION: AMERICA WILL
NOT BE SAVED BY ZERO
"Fed chief Ben Bernanke made his
name studying depressions. He will slash rates to zero
if necessary, and then - in his own words - drop cash from
helicopters. But his solution is somebody
else's dollar crisis," writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in London
Telegraph.
MarketWatch.com reports, "The Federal
Reserve is likely to cut the federal funds rate
as low as it can go at this week's meeting, and to begin shifting its focus
to nontraditional policies. With this money
flowing into the banking sector, many
economists are worried about inflation down the road," reports
MarketWatch.com
Mr. Smith writes, "I suspect the economy will be so bad by 2009 Q2
& Q3 that Mr. Bernanke will not use a helicopter to drop money to the
public, but instead a C-130 air cargo transport to carry the vast amount
necessary for real stimulus."
Currently we are in a short term, rapid
"disinflationary" environment. Disinflation is
defined as "a phase of the business cycle, in which retailers
can no longer pass on higher prices to their
customers, often during a recession." In contrast, "deflation
occurs when prices are actually dropping."
This will be followed by a dropping dollar and
inflation.
GOLD COINS LIGHT UP THE
DARKNESS
Owning physical gold is safer, much
more liquid and offers more profit potential than
today's low-yielding T-Bills and Bonds, shaky U.S. stock markets or the
slowly recovering real estate market. Gold is a
brilliant alternative right now, according to 60 key market experts.
According to Mr. Smith, "A model
diversification during uncertain times like these should
be something like; 20% in real estate, 20% in stocks, 20% in
bonds, 20% cash equivalents and 20% in gold.
It's time we stopped looking at the day-to-day market movements and
instead focus on having a decade-to-decade
perspective."
Inflation will at some point become
destructive. It will be brought under control by
means of raising interest rates. Back in 1980 interest rates rose above
20%, which was the time to buy bonds and bills
NOT now. Gold is profitable as the dollars value declines,
Treasuries with a 0-2% yield are NOT liquid and will losing
money during inflation.
CNBC anchor Joe Kernan recently said,
given the low Treasury yields: "I'm starting
to buy gold!" -- Shouldn't you be saying the same thing? The next
big question is what type of gold to buy; ETFs,
gold stocks, gold futures, physical gold bullion or classic
U.S. gold coins?
The charts illustrate that while gold
bullion prices are now right where they started
the year ($835/oz.), Mint-State $20 Liberty gold coins are up over 30%. So,
in addition to offering safety, liquidity and
growth potential equal to bullion, classic Mint-State
$20 gold pieces also offer 100% privacy of ownership and much better
growth over the last year!
Discover our strategy by reading our 2009 chapter of
Rediscovering Gold: "The Financial Light
of the World"
Request this free of charge by calling toll
free 877-703-2193 or click the link at the top of the page "Free
Info"