
America, brace for inflation
Posted: March 23, 2009
1:00 am
Eastern
© 2009
In its attempt to bolster the U.S economy, the Federal Reserve has left
no doubt in my mind that we are in a modern day depression – one that
will be addressed by a massive expansion of the Fed balance sheet by
trillions of dollars.
In 1929 the Fed contracted the money supply, and as a result we
had deflation. The same was occurring in the initial stages of the current
recession that began in December of 2007. If that recession had been
allowed to run the normal course of a recession, we would be well on our
way to recovery. But given the low tolerance for political pain in D.C.,
our leaders employed massive doses of spending that killed the pain but did
not address the disease.
The economy is worse off now than it was before all the government
"help."
Bernanke is making it clear he is going to expand the balance sheet of
the Fed to whatever level is necessary to avoid a deeper and more prolonged
recession/depression. Bernanke's master thesis for his doctorate was the
Great Depression. It has long been known that Bernanke's assessment was
that the Fed acted way too late in 1929 and should have never restricted
the money supply. Bernanke is a firm believer in printing money and even
throwing it out of helicopters to stimulate an ailing economy.
This attitude earned Bernanke the nickname, "Helicopter Ben."
Last week Ben loaded the chopper with $1.125 trillion of freshly printed
U.S. dollars and threw it out onto awaiting recipients. He purchased an
additional $750 billion of government-guaranteed, mortgage-backed
securities on top of the $500 billion he has already purchased.
The Fed also agreed to buy up to $300 billion worth of longer-term
Treasury securities over the next six months; a move virtually never seen
from the Fed. What need has the Fed to buy the safest financial instrument
available other than to lower rates, thus forcing Treasury holders to look
for better returns in other markets. There is no other plausible
explanation for such a Fed purchase.
He will also buy up to another $100 billion of agency debt for a total
of $200 billion. In essence, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to $1.8
trillion from just under $900 billion. The actions announced last Wednesday
may well ultimately expand the balance sheet to $3 trillion or more over
the next year.
How did the market receive this stroke of Keynesian genius?
Stocks rallied from down 50 to up 80 points, gold rallied from down $30
to up $30 and the dollar suffered it single worst day since 1985 losing a
full 3 percent against all major currencies. Gold went up an additional $18 on
Thursday while stocks dropped 80 points and the dollar received a thorough
pounding. Friday faired no better with stocks down another 122 points. And
while I enjoyed the increase in gold given I own a gold company, this was
the worst thing in the world for the country.
After reducing interest rates to virtually zero and employing
quantitative easing with little to no positive effect on the economy,
Bernanke is using one of the last tools in his box of fixes: printing
money. He is now in competition with anyone who holds U.S. dollars.
It is reported there are trillions of dollars on the sidelines in bank
deposits, money markets, treasuries etc. Now that Bernanke has printed
another trillion dollars, it makes those deposits worth less as the
quantity has increased. If you have 100 bushels of corn and the farmer next
door grows 200 more, your corn becomes worth less as the quantity has
increased without an increase in demand. Its Economics 101. If you increase
the supply while demand remains unchanged, prices drop; increase demand
while quantity remains the same, prices go up.
Bernanke is clearly willing to exponentially increase the supply of
dollars by printing as his ability to borrow dollars at this time is at
zero. Who in their right mind is willing to lend dollars knowing the Fed
can and will print more making what they lent worth less, especially when
the rate of return is less than the rate of devaluation?
The talk of re-inflating a balloon that has burst is a joke. That is
unless the fabric of the balloon has been
repaired. If not, the newly pumped air escapes. So the Fed will be forced
to watch this air (printed dollars) disappear into this atmosphere.
In the past, the Fed has pumped billions through low-interest loans, thus creating the
"dot-com" bubble, the stock market bubble, the housing bubble and
now the Treasury bubble as people seek safety. Once Treasuries burst, which
should be any day now given the Fed's willingness to devalue the dollar,
the recipient of the pumping will be commodities. However this time the
bubble will not burst for unlike paper markets there is an actual
commodity. Gold, oil, wheat, steel, copper, corn etc. cannot be created out
of thin air. They are real.
And as such their price movement will be a reflection of supply and
demand.
The old days of simple stock and bond portfolio strategy in planning for
retirement and savings are no longer valid. Commodities and
commodity-oriented companies will be a must for every investor if they wish
to survive the ongoing market management of the Fed and the government. As
Obama, with the assistance of Bernanke, continues to create trillions of
new dollars to bring about the socialism he envisions, the long term value
of the dollar will go substantially lower.
Lower dollar value translates into higher costs of living, or a lower
standard of living if an individual has no way to offset raising costs and
possible unemployment.
Make no mistake about it, Obama, Bernanke and Geithner are doing exactly
what they said they were going to do: print and spend their way back to
prosperity. Their delusional minds actually believe that can be achieved by
spending money we do not have with little to no prospect of ever being able
to pay it back. For Obama to suggest he can balance a budget, no less
reduce the national debt, with his corrupt math is ridiculous.
If some of the predictions are accurate, we may see a doubling of the
national debt in the next decade if some fiscal sanity does not return to
Washington and stop this very flawed and politically expedient process that
the Keynesians and socialists are pursuing.
The Obama administration made it very serious last Thursday when
Congress passed legislation to tax 90 percent of the bonuses at AIG with
the blessing of the White House. While that may satisfy the populist
outrage festering in America about bonuses, it will do little to fix the
problems – not to mention the unconstitutional nature of such
actions. Taxes are a means to generate revenue to facilitate the proper
functioning of government, not to punish people. If the Treasury, the
Justice Department and the Fed do not see the danger in such a move, they
have ignored the Constitution.
The framers in their wisdom knew the potential threat of politicians
being whipped into a frenzy by an angry electorate. Thus Article One and
Nine state, "No bill of attainder or ex post facto shall be
passed." This was designed to assure enforcement of the separations of
power and as such protected individual rights. Disputes like the bonuses
should be handled by the courts, not by legislative fiat. There are also
specific assurances of "due process" and "sound
legislation" to keep Congress from reacting irrationally. Obama should
veto this bill to fulfill his oath to protect and defend the Constitution,
regardless of how repugnant these bonuses may be.
If listening to Chucky Schumer and "Bawney Fwank" wax eloquent
on how they will tax all of any citizen's money away doesn't send a chill
up your spine, then you are a mindless follower of Obama mania. Where is
the ACLU when Frank demands to have the identities of people under death
threat be made public? Maybe we should ask for a list of Barney's
boyfriends?
Am I the only American who is troubled with a Congress that takes only a
few hours to increase taxes to 90 percent when it takes months to pass a
normal spending bill? Every member of Congress should be impeached or fired
over violating the oaths they swore to the Constitution. If they want the
bonus money back, sue in the courts. That is what the judicial branch is
for. Of course, they can't win because these contracts existed and were
even reinforced in the TARP legislation passed to "save the
world." Remember?
If the American people want to hang someone, it should be Congress, the
secretary of the Treasury and the president. Each of them knew full well
that TARP money would be paying bonuses at AIG, just as the money would be
paying Goldman Sachs the $20 billion AIG owed it. Or how about the many
foreign entities that received TARP funds via payments from AIG? American
taxpayer dollars used to bail out cronies at Goldman and foreign banks all with the full knowledge
of Congress? That is outrageous, don't you think? But Congress has done a
fine job focusing our anger on AIG employees instead of where the real
responsibility should lie ... with it!
If Obama and Dodd are so set on AIG employees giving back their bonuses,
maybe they should give back the $100,000 plus each received from those
employees in campaign contributions. How about John Kerry, Hillary Clinton
... shall I go on?
So while the "outrage" that Congress fakes incites a nation,
Rome is still burning. And Obama is on Leno talking about his handicapped
bowling abilities. How presidential.
So it is simple. It's simple to even a novice. The government, with full
cooperation and participation of the Fed armed with printing presses, will
print money to avoid a repeat of 1929 – regardless of what the
long-term consequence is to the value of the dollar every American works
for, saves and spends.
The government should have never gotten involved in trying to short
circuit the normal business cycle we have seen over and over again in the
economy. Our economy has expanded and contracted several times over the
last 100 years. It is normal. But now that the government has made it its
business to stop a recession, it will quickly learn it can no more
legislate us out of a recession any more than it can legislate away the
principles of mathematics.
It will fail, and I would argue it already has. That is why in prior
writings I have pleaded with the government to stop any more wasteful
deployment of taxpayer dollars. It is making things worse, not better.
If it really wanted to address the real problem, it would reduce the
size of government, stop wasteful government spending and put more of
America's money back in the hands of Americans. It would encourage savings,
not consumption. It would lead by example in not spending money we do not
have.
But obviously to do so would demand an immediate termination of the
welfare state birthed under FDR and fulfilled under Nancy Pelosi and Obama.
To have 300 million Americans all dependent upon government is not freedom.
It is slavery. Abraham Lincoln helped end slavery, and now Obama wants it
back – this time for all Americans. He's an equal opportunity master
of our time. A good crisis is a terrible thing to waste, according to Rahm
Emmanuel. That is especially true if you can expand the welfare state in
the process.
These recent events demand immediate decisions by "We the
People." If our government is going to pursue the "run the
printing presses till they burn out" approach, we must take immediate
steps to protect our financial future. The government stopped listening to
the American people long ago. Therefore those steps include reducing
personal debt and purchasing gold, other commodities and companies that
produce commodities. Writing letters and making phone calls
to the deaf and dumb is a waste of time.
Inflation is coming. Bernanke, short of taking a full-page ad in the
Wall Street Journal, told you so. And while you may not see it just yet in
the CPI, it will be there. It may well become hyper-inflation. I am
convinced our leaders are such pansies that they will not make the tough
decisions or demand sacrifice from the nation. Why? They are not willing to
sacrifice themselves. They have become spoiled beyond belief, totally out
of touch with reality and merely want to hold on to their power. The
principles that will get us back the nation we are rapidly losing be damned
in the eyes of this leadership. It is all politics now.
Craig R. Smith is an author, commentator and
popular media guest because he instantly engages audiences with his
common-sense analyses of local, national and global trends. Serving as CEO
of Swiss America for over 25
years, Craig understands that Americans want solid answers to the tough
questions and that real leadership begins with servanthood. Craig's most
recent book is "Black Gold
Stranglehold: The Myth of Scarcity and the Politics of Oil," which
he co-authored with WND columnist
Jerome R. Corsi. For media interviews please call Holly at
800-950-2428.