What would you do?
Analysis of the last (and next) financial
crisis
by CRAIG R. SMITH
Sept. 18, 2009
If you had been able to foresee the sub-prime mortgage crisis and what
it would do to the economy, what would you have done differently? Would you
have sold your real estate? Invested in different companies? Saved more?
Spent less? Took a stronger position in cash? What steps would you have
taken to protect your family and your savings?
With Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities coming due at the end of
2009, our tumultuous economy won't likely be calming down anytime soon. Now
is the time to plan for the next round of possible meltdowns in the
financial sector. Despite the positive outlook coming from Fed Chairman
Bernanke and the politicians in DC, most Americans feel the recession is
far from over. It seems like little more than the same spin designed to
shore up what remaining confidence Americans have before the other shoe
drops.
2009 marks the eight year anniversary of the tragic events of September
11th. At the end of the day on September, 11, 2001, many thought America
had been brought to her financial knees. Were they correct? Consider the
chart below.
The Dow which topped out at 14,000 in July 2007 is today
struggling to maintain the same level it was at eight years ago. Our
dollar's buying power has shrunk by 37%, our debt has doubled and our
budget deficit is exponentially out of control; from a projected $153
billion surplus in 2001 to a jaw-dropping $1.7 trillion deficit today.
Commodities are about the only bright spot with oil prices more than
doubling and gold prices more than tripling.
The best way to protect your assets in the last crisis would have been
to build a hedge of protection around your home and retirement funds using
gold. Will this strategy work during the next financial disaster? Time will
tell, but history says yes.
What's on the horizon?
Aside from 10% unemployment, the growing possibility of a double-dip
recession, higher taxes, trillions more in government bailouts and a
potential healthcare takeover; experts are calling the potential commercial
mortgage crisis a, "$ 1 Trillion Time Bomb".
"So far, banks in general have been reluctant to take losses on
their commercial books. This ‘delay and pray’ strategy is
preventing most banks from issuing new loans as they prepare their balance
sheets for potential future losses." -The Wall Street Journal
The sub-prime mortgage crisis and subsequent financial crisis have
already triggered a dramatic rise in residential mortgage delinquencies and
foreclosures. Foreclosure filings in the US exceeded 300,000 for the sixth
straight month in September, up 18% from a year ago.
An estimated $1 trillion in toxic assets were produced in the sub-prime
lending crisis and it is far from over as millions of ARMs and other loans
are not able to be refinanced today.
What will happen when the $1-2 trillion in commercial mortgages taken
out between 2005-2008 come due? What if the banks cannot or will not lend
or refinance property at current market values? Here’s a few
thoughtful warnings in the headlines:
* Defaults on Banks’ Commercial Mortgages
Seen Rising Above 5% – Bloomberg “Defaults and late
payments on loans bundled into CMBS could surpass 7% by the end of this
year as banks anticipate more losses amid falling rents, according to Real
Estate Econometrics LLC.”
* “Too-big-to-fail banks have become even
bigger. The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the
crisis,” said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize- winning
economist to Bloomberg. The Fed faces a “quandary” in ending
its monetary stimulus programs because doing so may drive up the cost of
borrowing.
* "I think the worst is yet to come,”
warns Peter Cohen, former Lehman CEO on CNBC. “I think we've
got a tough year, year and a half to get through. Things aren't getting any
better in the financial system. They're getting worse.”
* Economist warns of double-dip recession
– London Financial Times “The world has not tackled the
problems at the heart of the economic downturn and is likely to slip back
into recession. Government actions to help the economy in the short run may
be sowing the seeds for future crises.”
No wonder the Federal Reserve is terrified about the prospect of being
independently audited. If the world knew where all the toxic assets were
buried, it would panic investors globally.
What will this mean for our families?
"The destiny of a currency determines the destiny of a
nation," according to Dr. Franz Pick, a noted free market economist.
Take Argentina, for example, once known as “The Paris of South
America” with its enviable healthcare system, fine education system
and a thriving economy. But, due to amassing billions in debt that could
not be paid back, Argentina quickly went from being a 1st world nation to a
3rd world nation. As the U.S. government today follows in Argentina's
footsteps, could the same fate befall America?
Our government has decided to sacrifice the buying power of the US
dollar to pay for their trillions in spending. The only way to come back
from the brink is inflation. It is the only alternative that is politically
expedient.
Inflation translates into a shrinking of the value of our time, labor
and lifestyle. Bottom line: Americans must work harder and longer just to
maintain a fraction of their buying power. Our cost of living could
skyrocket.
According to Nobel Prize winning economists as well as banking and real
estate experts, the next shoe to drop will be a new wave of
commercial-mortgage-backed securities foreclosures, leading to further home
foreclosures, bank failures, government bailouts and a sharply weaker
dollar. History teaches us debtors become slaves. Reversing the dollar's
decline seems remote, given our addiction to debt.
If only we had allowed the free markets to work instead of propping up
the economy with false hope and false money, we might have had a true
recovery by 2010.
It is important, now more than ever, for all Americans to convert a
portion of their wealth into the best asset of the last decade,
physically-held precious metals. They offer a safe haven from a very
uncertain financial future. You may not get rich quick, but history
demonstrates that at least you’ll never be poor holding the
world’s ultimate forms of money; gold and silver.